有谁可以帮我翻译 重酬

Question

在资本市场中（如股票、期货市场）：会有其他某些蠢人参与进来并愿意以更高价格买进

“博傻理论”所要揭示的就是投机行为背后的动机，投机行为的关键是判断“有没有比自己更大的笨蛋”，只要自己不是最大的笨蛋，那么自己就一定是赢家，只是应多赢少的问题。

如果再没有一个愿意出更高价格的更大笨蛋来做你的“下家”，那么你就成了最大的笨蛋。可以这样说，任何一个投机者信奉的无非是“最大的笨蛋”理论。

在艺术品市场中：预期会有人花更高的价格从你手中买走它

（Theory of Greater Fool）：你之所以完全不管某件艺术品的真实价值，即使它一文不值，也愿意花高价买下，是因为你预期会有更大的笨蛋花更高的价格从你手中买走它。而投资成功的关键就在于能否准确判断究竟有没有比自己更大的笨蛋出现。只要你不是最大的笨蛋，就仅仅是赚多赚少的问题。如果再也找不到愿意出更高价格的更大笨蛋从你手中买走这件艺术品的话，那么，很显然你就是最大的笨蛋了。

博弈论中的笨蛋理论

经济学家凯恩斯为了能够专注地从事学术研究，免受金钱的困扰，曾出外讲课以赚取课时费，但课时费的收入毕竟是有限的。于是他在1919年8月，借了几千英镑去做远期外汇这种投机生意。

仅仅4个月的时间，凯恩斯净赚1万多英镑，这相当于他讲课10年的收入。但3个月之后，凯恩斯把赚到的利润和借来的本金输了个精光。7个月后，凯恩斯又涉足棉花期货交易，又大获成功。

凯恩斯把期货品种几乎做了个遍，而且还涉足于股票。到1937年他因病而“金盆洗手”的时候，已经积攒起一生享用不完的巨额财富。

与一般赌徒不同，作为经济学家的凯恩斯在这场投机的生意中，除了赚取可观的利润之外，最大也是最有益的收获是发现“笨蛋理论”，也有人将其称为“博傻理论”。

什么是“博傻理论”呢？凯恩斯曾举过这样一个例子：

从100张照片中选出你认为最漂亮的脸，选中的有奖。但确定那一张脸是最漂亮的脸是要由大家投票来决定的。

试想，如果是你，你会怎样投票呢？此时，因为由大家的参与，所以你的正确策略并不是选自己认为的最漂亮的那张脸，而是猜多数人会选谁就偷税一票，那怕丑的不堪入目。在这里，你的行为是建立在对大众心理猜测的基础上而并非是你的真实想法。

凯恩斯说，专业投资大约可以比作报纸举办的比赛，这些比赛由读者从100张照片中选出6章最漂亮的面孔，谁的答案最接近全体读者作为一个整体得出的平均答案，谁就能获奖；因此，每个参加者必须挑选的并非他自己认为最漂亮的面孔，而是他认为最能吸引其他参加者注意力的面孔，这些其他参加者也正以同样的方式考虑这个问题。现在要选的不是根据个人最佳判断确定的真正最漂亮的面孔，甚至也不是一般人的意见认为的真正最漂亮的面孔。我们必须作出第三种选择，即运用我们的智慧预计一般人的意见，认为一般人的意见应该是什么……这雨水是最漂亮的女人无关，你关心的是怎样预测其他人认为谁最漂亮，又或是其他人认为其他人认为谁最漂亮……

在报纸的选美比赛中，读者必须同时设身处地地从其他读者的角度思考，这时，他们选择生这与其说取决于真正的或绝对的美丽标准，不如说某个擦去娘家选美的女子比其他女子漂亮很多倍，它就可以成为一个万众瞩目的焦点。不过，读者的工作就没难么简单。假定这100个决赛选手简直不相上下，最大的区别莫过于头发的颜色。在这100个人当中，只一个红头发的姑娘。你会不会挑选这位红头发的姑娘？

Answer 1

In capital market (for example stock, futures market): Can have othercertain fools to participation and is willing to buy up by a higherprice

"The abundant silly theory" must promulgate is behind thecongenial behavior motive, does the congenial behavior key is thejudgement "have compared to an oneself bigger fool", so long as ownare not the biggest fool, then own certainly are the winner, only isshould win the few questions.

If again does not have to want a higher price crying foul to be you"under the family", then you have become the biggest fool. May saylike this that, any speculator believes in nothing but is "the biggestfool" the theory.

In artware market: Anticipated can some person of flowered higherprice buy it from your hand

(Theory of Greater Fool): You therefore completely no mattersome artware real value, even if it is not worth a red cent, alsowants the colored high price to buy, is because you anticipated canhave a bigger fool flower higher price to buy it from your hand.Whether but invests the successful key to lie in accurately judgesactually has compared to the oneself bigger fool appearance. So longas you are not the biggest fool, merely is gains gains the fewquestions. If again also cannot find wants a higher price crying foulto buy this artware from your hand, then, very obviously you were thebiggest fool.

In game theory fool theory

Economist Keynes in order to can dedicated be engaged in thescholarly research, exempts the money puzzle, once went out teachingto earn the class hour expense, but the class hour spent the incomewas limited after all. Thereupon he in August, 1919, borrowed severalthousand pounds to do forward exchange this kind of congenialbusiness.

The merely 4 month-long time, Keynes only gains more than 10,000pounds, this is equal to him teaches 10 years income. But 3 months,the capital which Keynes gains the profit which and borrows to lose精光. After 7 months, Keynes steps in the cotton prompt sale, alsogreatly attains successfully.

Keynes has nearly made the stock variety, moreover also steps in tothe stock. He because of got sick but "金盆洗手" the time to 1937,already saved the life cannot enjoy the large amount wealth.

Is different with the common gambler, took the economist Keynes inthis congenial business, besides earns the considerable profit, mostgreatly also is the most beneficial harvest is discovers "the fooltheory", also some people are called it "the abundant silly theory".

What is "the abundant silly theory"? Keynes once has cited this kindof example:

Selects you from 100 pictures to think the most attractive face,selects has the prize. But determined that face is the most attractiveface is must vote by everybody decided.

Suppose, if is you, how you can vote? This time, because of byeverybody participation, therefore your correct strategy certainly isnot the most attractive that face which elects oneself to think, butis guessed who the most people can choose to smuggle a ticket, thatfeared the clown is unable to withstand sees. In here, your behavioris the establishment in to the populace psychology guess foundation inbut is your real idea by no means.

Keynes said that, the specialized investment approximately may comparewith the competition which the newspaper conducts, these competitionsselects 6 chapter of most attractive faces by the reader from 100pictures, whose answer most approaches all reader to take a wholeobtains the average answer, who can win an award; Therefore, eachparticipant must choose he to think the most attractive face by nomeans, but is he thought most can attract other participant attentionsthe face, these other participants also are considering this questionby the similar way. Now must elect is not best judges the definitetruly most attractive face according to individual, even is notaverage person's opinion thinks truly the most attractive face. Wemust make the third kind of choice, namely utilizes our wisdom toestimate average person's opinion, thought average person's opinionshould be any... ... This rain water is the most attractive womanirrelevant, how do you care about are forecast who other people dothink attractively, also perhaps other people thought other peoplethought who is most attractive... ...

In the newspaper beauty contest competition, the reader mustsimultaneously putting oneself in another's place ponder from otherreaders' angles that, by now, they chose live this if to say wasdecided to true or the absolute beautiful standard, was inferior tosaid some deleted the maternal home beauty contest the female was moreattractive than very multiple other females, it was allowed to becomethe focal point which a Wan Zhong focused attention on. But, reader'swork does not have is difficult simply. Supposes these 100 finalscontestant to be simply equally matched, biggest difference not toohair color. In the middle of this 100 individual, an only red hairgirl. You can choose this red hair girl?
资本市场の中で（例えば株券、先物市场）：その他のいくつかの间抜けが参与して入ることができ(ありえ)てそしてもっと高い価格で买い入れることを愿います

“马鹿な理论を博します”の掲示するのは行为の背后の动机にチャンスをねらうので、行为にチャンスをねらう肝心な点は判断の“自分よりもっと大きいばかがありますか”で、自分は最大のばかではありませんのでさえすれ(あれ)ば、それでは自分できっと胜者で、多くただ少しの问题に胜つだけべきです。

もし更にひとつがもっと高い価格のもっと大きいばかを出してあなたの“次の番の者”をしにくることを愿うないならば、それではあなたは最大のばかになった。いかなる1人の投机筋の信奉したのきっと“最大のばか”の理论とこのように言うことができます。

芸术品の市场の中にあります：人がいてもっと高い価格を使ってあなたの手の中からそれに买っていくことができ(ありえ)ると予想します

（Theory of Greater Fool）：あなたは完全になぜある芸术品の真実な価値を构わないのか、たとえそれは一文の値打ちもないとしても、高値を使って买い取ることをも愿って、あなたがもっと大きいばかがもっと高い価格を使ってあなたの手の中からそれに买っていくことができ(ありえ)ると予想するためです。投资のみごとな肝心な点は正确に一体自分よりもっと大きいばかが现れることがありますかを判断することができるかどうかかにあります。あなたは最大のばかではありませんのでさえすれ(あれ)ば、储けて多く少しの问题を储けるだけです。二度ともし探し出せないならばもっと高い価格のもっと大きいばかを出してあなたの手の中からこの芸术品に买っていくことを愿って、それでは、とても明らかにあなたは最大のばかでした。

碁を打ちます议论する中のばかの理论

経済学者のケインズは集中して学术研究に従事することができるため、金銭の悩みに受取るのを免除して、かつて他所へ行って讲义して储けます授业时间费を取って、しかし授业时间费の収入は结局有限です。そこで彼は1919年8月にになって、数(何)千英ポンドが先物の外国为替のこの种类の合う商売をすることに借りました。

4ヶ月だけの时间、ケインズは1万数英ポンド纯益を得て、これは彼に相当して讲义します10年の収入。しかし3ヶ月の(以)后で、ケインズが储ける利润と借りてくる元金を个に负けたのはすっかりなくなります。7ヶ月の后で、ケインズはまた绵の先物取引に足を踏み入れて、また大いに得ることに成功します。

ケインズは先物の品种をほとんど一面に个にして、その上また株券で足を踏み入れます。1937年まで彼病気で“足を洗います”の时に、すでに少しずつ蓄え始めて一生终わらない巨额の财产を楽しみます。

普通のばくち打ちと违い、この合う商売の中で経済学者のケインズとして、储けて见るに値する利润を取ります以外、最大も最も役に立つ収获が“ばかの理论”を発见するのなので、ある人はそれを“马鹿な理论を博します”にも称します。

何が“马鹿な理论を博します”ですか？ケインズと曾挙はこのように1つの例を过ぎます：

100枚の写真からあなたを当选しだして最もきれいな颜を思って、选ぶ赏金付き。しかしあの1枚の颜が最もきれいな颜がみんなのから投票してくるの决定のなのなことを确定します。

考えてもみなさい、もしあなただならば、あなたはどのように投票することができ(ありえ)ますか？この时、みんなの参与からため、あなたの正しい策略は别に自分の思う最もきれいなあの颜を选びなくて、多くの人の会选は谁が1票脱税しますかを当てるので、それでは耻をかきたくない见るに堪えないこと。ここで、あなたの行为は大众の心理の推测に対する基础の上で创立するのが决してあなたの真実な考えだではないのです。

ケインズは、専门の投资は大体新闻の催す试合をたとえることができて、これらの试合は読者のから100枚の写真から6章の最もきれいな颜を当选しだして、谁の解答が最も全体の読者に接近して1つの全体の得る平均の解答として、谁が受赏することができます；そのため、すべての参加者の必ず选ばなければならないのは决して彼ではないのが自分で最もきれいな颜を思って、彼が最もその他の参加者の注意力の颜を引きつけることができると思っているので、これらのその他の参加者も同様な方式でこの问题を考虑していますと言います。今选ぶのは个人の最优秀判断の确定するの本当に最もきれいな颜によってそうではなくて、甚だしきに至ってはも普通の人の意见の思ったこと本当に最もきれいな颜ではありません。私达は必ず第3种类の选択を作り出さなければならなくて、すぐ私达の知恵を运用して普通の人の意见を予想して、普通の人の意见が何であるべきかと思っています……この雨量は最もきれいな女の人が関系がないので、あなたの関心のはどのようにその他の人が谁が最もきれいだと思っていることを予测するので、また或いはその他の人はその他の人が谁が最もきれいだと思うと思っています……

新闻の美人コンテストの试合中で、読者は同时に他人の身になってその他の読者の角度から必ず考えなければならなくて、この时、彼らはこれを生んでむしろ本当あるいは绝対的な美しい标准にかかることを选んで、むしろあるのはその他の女子に比べて実家の美人コンテストの女子きれいで多くの倍に拭いていって、それは大众の注目する焦点になることができます。でも、読者の仕事は难しくなっていません麼は简単です。この100人の决胜戦の选手がまったく似たり寄ったりなことと仮定して、最大の违いは髪の毛の色に胜るものはありません。この100人の中で、ただ1つの赤い髪の毛の女の子だけ。あなたはこちらの赤い髪の毛の女の子を选ぶことができ(ありえ)ますか？

Answer 2

involved in equities. By 1937 his illness and "Jinpen wash their hands", has been the accumulation of a lifetime to enjoy不完the enormous wealth.
General gamblers with different, as the Keynesian economist in the speculation business, in addition to earn substantial profits, the largest and most useful harvest is found "fool theory", it was also will be called "Bo stupid theory."
What is "Bo silly theory"? Cairns had been given such an example:
From 100 photographs selected you think that the most beautiful face, selected a prize. But determining that a straight face was the most beautiful face is to vote by the people to decide.
Imagine, if you, how would you vote? At this time, because of the participation by everyone, so you are not the correct tactic that the election itself Let's talk about the most beautiful face, but guess most people will pick a vote on tax evasion, then anxieties of facing embarrassment of offensive. Here, your behavior is based on mass psychological speculation and not on the basis of the true thinking of you.
Cairns said that professional investment can be compared to newspapers about organized competitions, these competitions by readers from 100 photos selected six chapters most beautiful faces of all who answer to the nearest draw readers as a whole, the average answer, is capable of winning; Therefore, each participant must be selected and non-his own view, the most beautiful face, but he felt was most likely to attract the attention of other participants faces, these are also other participants in the same way to consider this issue. Now the election is not determined in accordance with personal best judgment of the true most beautiful face, or even most people's view that the true most beautiful faces. We must make the third option, that is, we use the wisdom of the expected general view that most people's views of what should be the rain ... This is the most beautiful woman has nothing to do, you are concerned about is how other people think that predict who is the most beautiful, or other people think that other people think that who is the most beautiful ... ...
The beauty contest in the newspaper, readers must also put ourselves in from other readers point of view, at this time, they chose to give birth to it not so much depend on the real or absolute standard of beauty than a wipe home contest of beautiful women than other women many times, it can become a long Zhu purpose of focus. However, the reader's no hard work Mody simple. Assuming that this 100 finalists simply equal, the biggest difference is the hair color. In these 100 individuals, only a red hair girl. You will select the red hair girl?本回答被提问者采纳

Answer 3

In the capital market (such as the stock and futures markets): there will be some other fool involvement of a higher price and was willing to buy

"Bo stupid theory," which is to reveal the motives behind the speculation, speculative behavior, the key is to determine "if there are any greater fool than ourselves", as long as they are not the biggest fool, then surely the winner himself, but should win more small problem.

If no one willing to pay higher prices and greater fool to do your "home", then you become the biggest fool. It can be said that any speculators believe in nothing more than "the greatest fool" theory.

In the art market: it was expected to be spent higher prices it bought from your hands

(Theory of Greater Fool): The reason why you a completely regardless of the true value of art, even if it worthless, and is willing to spend高价买, it is because you will have a greater fool is expected to spend a higher price bought it from your hands. The investment is the key to success can accurately judge whether there is a greater fool than he appeared. As long as you are not the biggest fool, it is only earn earn less problems. If do not find any trace willing to pay higher prices and greater fool bought from your hands this art, then, it is clear you are the biggest fool.

Game theory fool theory

Economist Keynes In order to be able to engage in academic research focus from money problems and had to go out to give lectures to earn class, but the class fee income is limited after all. So he in August 1919, borrowed a few thousand pounds to do this long-term speculative foreign exchange business.

Just four months time, the Keynesian net profit of more than 10,000 pounds, which is equivalent to his lectures in 10 revenue. But three months later, Cairns to earn profits of the principal amount borrowed and lost a精光. Seven months later, Cairns also get involved in cotton futures, and great success.

The futures Cairns almost done a variety of times, but also involved in equities. By 1937 his illness and "Jinpen wash their hands", has been the accumulation of a lifetime to enjoy不完the enormous wealth.

General gamblers with different, as the Keynesian economist in the speculation business, in addition to earn substantial profits, the largest and most useful harvest is found "fool theory", it was also will be called "Bo stupid theory."

What is "Bo silly theory"? Cairns had been given such an example:

From 100 photographs selected you think that the most beautiful face, selected a prize. But determining that a straight face was the most beautiful face is to vote by the people to decide.

Imagine, if you, how would you vote? At this time, because of the participation by everyone, so you are not the correct tactic that the election itself Let's talk about the most beautiful face, but guess most people will pick a vote on tax evasion, then anxieties of facing embarrassment of offensive. Here, your behavior is based on mass psychological speculation and not on the basis of the true thinking of you.

Cairns said that professional investment can be compared to newspapers about organized competitions, these competitions by readers from 100 photos selected six chapters most beautiful faces of all who answer to the nearest draw readers as a whole, the average answer, is capable of winning; Therefore, each participant must be selected and non-his own view, the most beautiful face, but he felt was most likely to attract the attention of other participants faces, these are also other participants in the same way to consider this issue. Now the election is not determined in accordance with personal best judgment of the true most beautiful face, or even most people's view that the true most beautiful faces. We must make the third option, that is, we use the wisdom of the expected general view that most people's views of what should be the rain ... This is the most beautiful woman has nothing to do, you are concerned about is how other people think that predict who is the most beautiful, or other people think that other people think that who is the most beautiful ... ...

The beauty contest in the newspaper, readers must also put ourselves in from other readers point of view, at this time, they chose to give birth to it not so much depend on the real or absolute standard of beauty than a wipe home contest of beautiful women than other women many times, it can become a long Zhu purpose of focus. However, the reader's no hard work Mody simple. Assuming that this 100 finalists simply equal, the biggest difference is the hair color. In these 100 individuals, only a red hair girl. You will select the red hair girl?

Answer 4

我觉得你这样很愚蠢,弄这么多的字数,知道翻译的人要花多少时间吗?而且这些不是很好翻译的,知道吗?
楼上的刚好在我前面,汗..........
很佩服你的耐性,不过你的翻译还是有很多问题的,加油

Answer 5

你的翻译很棒